Tag: Job Market

Trends in the Job Market

We’ve all heard the unemployment rate, and that it will get worse before we start to see some improvement. On a national basis, this is a serious problem. For an individual job seeker, the concern is more personal – landing a single job. No matter how high or low unemployment is, the primary (or only concern) is whether you can land a job for yourself. Despite this, there is some interesting and useful information in the jobs data.

We’ve all heard the unemployment rate, and that it will get worse before we start to see some improvement.  On a national basis, this is a serious problem.  For an individual job seeker, the concern is more personal – landing a single job.  No matter how high or low unemployment is, the primary (or only concern) is whether you can land a job for yourself.  Despite this, there is some interesting and useful information in the jobs data.

Unemployment Claims

Yesterday, it was announced that 505,000 people filed new unemployment claims last week.  This is just over a hundred thousand people per day.  It’s a huge number.  Fortunately, the number does have some positives.  First, it’s 100k lower than were we were at the start of the year.  Second, we’re approaching parity with jobs created.  The number I keep hearing is 400,000.  At that level, the number of people losing jobs each week will roughly equal the number landing jobs each week. 

The 400k figure has some significant implications. First, it means 400k people are getting hired every week.  That’s 80,000 people every day.  If you are worried about the economy as a whole, that doesn’t mean much, but it you are a job seeker, it means a lot.  Every day you search for a job, 80k people are going to be successful.  Searching for a job is far from a hopeless activity. 

Job Postings

Looking at Indeed’s job posting trends, in October, there were just over 1.8 million job postings.  That’s a lot of jobs.  Divide that number by 22 (the number of work days in October) and you 81,000 – approximately the number of people landing jobs each day.  So, the job postings are also getting filled.  Companies are hiring people, even if it is at a lower rate than a couple of years ago. 

The competition for these jobs is high.  There’s no arguing that.  Right now, we have approximately 15 million people unemployed.  That’s roughly 8 people for every job opening last month.  Of those 15 million, roughly 1.8 million should land jobs in November, while 13.2 million won’t.  On a national basis, this is a major problem.  For your job search, there are 1.8 million positions out there and you only need one.

Geography

All locations are not equal.  Indeed.com has a great trend page showing the number of job seekers compared to the number of open jobs for different metro areas.  It’s no surprised Detroit is at the bottom of the list, and with all the government jobs, Washington, DC is on top.  (Check out the data: http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends/unemployment) 

If you’re in a city with a low ratio, you should be in good shape.  If you are not, your prospects are still not hopeless.  You just have more competition you will need to beat out.

Bottom Line

Some people will look at the stats above and get energized (80k people will be hired today) and others will despair (13.2 million people won’t get a job this month).  If you want to be in the 80k getting hired every day, you need to work at it and maintain a positive, energetic attitude.  If you don’t, you are much more likely to be in the 13.2 million.  Discouraged job seekers are making up a larger and larger percentage of the population and their prospects are very low.  They are much less likely to actively network, customize their resume and cover letter, prepare thoroughly for every interview and do all the little things you need to do to be successful. Staying positive during your job search can be as important a factor in your success as all the skills and experiences you possess.

Job Market Update

Career Builder recently released their 3rd Quarter forecast. It shows some encouraging and discouraging results. The number of companies reporting plans to reduce staffing levels in the next quarter has declined. That’s good news. In the 2nd quarter forecast, 17% of companies planned to cut staff, and now the figure stands at 10%.

Career Builder recently released their 3rd Quarter forecast.  It shows some encouraging and discouraging results.  The number of companies reporting plans to reduce staffing levels in the next quarter has declined.  That’s good news.  In the 2nd quarter forecast, 17% of companies planned to cut staff, and now the figure stands at 10%. 

Unfortunately, the report also shows that companies are slow to start to hiring.  The percentage of companies reporting that they plan on increasing staffing levels also declined.  The result is an increase in the number of companies holding staffing levels even.

This is good news if you are employed.  The odds of getting downsized are declining.  Companies made substantial cuts very quickly.  They are now leaner and able to weather a recession.  If you are unemployed, the outlook isn’t as positive.  Companies will replace workers that leave, but won’t add to the workforce.  This will make the competition for jobs high for the foreseeable future. 

Eventually, every recession will naturally come to an end.  People and companies are using up inventory and will need to replace it.  At home, this is putting off repairs to the house or keeping a car for an extra year or two.  In business, this is delaying equipment upgrades and replacements, new product introductions and investments in new product development.  At some point, everything will wear out and need to be replaced.  At that point, we will have tremendous pent up demand and the economy will start to expand. 

This may sound good in theory, but if you’re out of work and need a paycheck, it doesn’t put food on the table tonight.  To land a job, you need to show the value you will provide to the company.  The best way to do this is to show how you contributed in the past above and beyond expectations. 

Check out the full report at http://img.icbdr.com/images/jp/content/pdf/Q3-09-RBU.pdf

Job Market Statistics

Career Builder released their 2nd Quarter job forecast recently. The report showed a slowing in hiring – just as we would expect in our current economic situation. Companies are laying off workers, cutting hours, reducing benefits and freezing hiring. There were a number of positives in the report, though.

Career Builder released their 2nd Quarter job forecast recently. The report showed a slowing in hiring – just as we would expect in our current economic situation.  Companies are laying off workers, cutting hours, reducing benefits and freezing hiring. There were a number of positives in the report, though.

The hiring forecast surveyed more than 2500 hiring managers. As expected, more firms reduced the number of full-time employees as compared to the number of firms who increased staffing. In fact, the number cutting employment was double the number expanding. What is interesting, and a reason to be optimistic, is the number reducing staffing was only 26% of the hiring managers surveyed. The other 74% of firms either maintained staffing levels or increased them.

For many firms, maintaining staffing levels requires continued hiring. Employees will still leave and need to be replaced. In fact, some of the companies reducing staffing levels may still need to hire to replace the loss of key employees. Although only 13% of the hiring managers said they were increasing staffing levels, the number who are doing some hiring could be as high or higher than three out of four companies.

The hours worked per employee were less positive. Again around a quarter of the firms made cuts, but this time only 5% increased the hours worked. The difference between this measure and the measure of the number of employees is a results of how companies are reacting to the recession. They are cutting hours and benefits, while trying to maintain staffing levels. Every manager knows that the company who maintains their staff and is ready to grow coming out of a recession will gain market share. The challenge is cutting enough to survive the recession, but not cutting too much.

You can read the full report at http://img.icbdr.com/images/aboutus/pressroom/Q22009forecastreport.pdf

Job Trends

Indeed.com released a new tool providing trends for a dozen industries. The tool displays job market data from the job postings on Indeed.

Indeed.com released a new tool providing trends for a dozen industries. The tool displays job market data from the job postings on Indeed.

Indeed is a job aggregator. The sites pulls job postings from a wide range of websites, including job boards and corporate websites. It is a great resource for job seekers that want to search for jobs from a large number of sources at once.

You can see the job market trends at http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends/industry 

Historic Context of Our Current Recession

There is a fantastic article in the Wall Street Journal, Obama’s Rhetoric Is the Real ‘Catastrophe,’ comparing our current economic situation to past downturns. The article details several major economic statistics for three time periods, the current situation, the recession of ’81-’82 and the Great Depression.

There is a fantastic article in the Wall Street Journal, comparing our current economic situation to past downturns.  The article details several major economic statistics for three time periods, the current situation, the recession of ’81-’82 and the Great Depression.

The situation today has a lot in common with the situation in 1981, although that recession was a little worse than we are seeing now.  In comparison, the Great Depression is in a category by itself.

One of the statistics from the article that stands out is in regard to unemployment.  The WSJ writes:

“In the last year, the U.S. economy shed 3.4 million jobs. That’s a grim statistic for sure, but represents just 2.2% of the labor force. From November 1981 to October 1982, 2.4 million jobs were lost — fewer in number than today, but the labor force was smaller. So 1981-82 job losses totaled 2.2% of the labor force, the same as now.

Job losses in the Great Depression were of an entirely different magnitude. In 1930, the economy shed 4.8% of the labor force. In 1931, 6.5%. And then in 1932, another 7.1%. Jobs were being lost at double or triple the rate of 2008-09 or 1981-82.”

Our current unemployment would have to triple to approach the worst of the depression.  Last month, we saw a number of positive economic numbers.  I don’t think we’ve turned the corner yet, but we’re not in the death spiral of the early 1930’s either.

It’s important to keep some perspective on the job market when all the news is terrible.  If you are out of work and can’t find a job, it can feel like there is no hope.  Finding a job is tougher today than it was a few years ago – there’s no doubt about that.  It is not impossible, though.

Confidence is a major factor in a job search.  A lack energy and enthusiasm will hurt the impression given in an interview.  It is important to talk about your past successes and demonstrate pride in your accomplishments.  Without energy, enthusiasm and pride, you’re much less likely to succeed.  Self-confidence is often the most difficult aspect of a search to handle.  Losing a job can cause a complete lack of confidence, or worse, mild to severe depression.  Focus on your strengths and past accomplishments.  If you cannot restore your confidence and enthusiasm, seek professional help.




Remember, no matter how bleak the outlook appears, there are still opportunities.  In the late 1920’s and early 1930’s, there were a lot of people that started businesses and began hiring as they grew.  These individuals believed strongly that they could succeed no matter what the economic climate held.  Many failed, but some succeeded.  Below are a few examples of the companies that got their start and fought through the Great Depression successfully:

  • 1929 United Technologies (39th on Fortune 500 List, $54Bil in revenues)
  • 1925 Caterpillar (50th on Fortune 500 List, $45Bil in revenues)
  • 1928 Motorola (65th on the Fortune 500 List, $36Bil in revenues)
  • 1927 Northrup Grumman (76th on the Fortune 500 List, $32Bil in revenues)
  • 1931 Tyson Foods (88th on the Fortune 500 List, $26Bil in revenues)
  • 1930 Publix Super Markets (107th on the Fortune 500 List, $23Bil in revenues)
  • 1926 UAL (124th on the Fortune 500 List, $20Bil in revenues)
  • 1930 Fortune Magazine (Publisher of the Fortune 500 List)

Read the WSJ Article

Job Market Trends

I received the CareerBuilder Hiring Forecast for 2009 along with a few other reports from CareerBuilder recently. There are a number of interesting items in the reports, and two in particular that jumped out to me.

I received the CareerBuilder Hiring Forecast for 2009 along with a few other reports from CareerBuilder recently. There are a number of interesting items in the reports, and two in particular that jumped out to me.

Changes in Staffing Levels

The hiring forecast compiled data from 3,200 hiring managers. Interestingly, most said they were increasing or maintaining staffing levels. Only 16% said that they planned to reduce the number of permanent full-time employees in their location.

This may come as a shock to a lot people. The only news you can find talks about how bad the economy is. The economy is bad. We’re in a recession. January’s unemployment figure is due out today, and I expect it to be bad.

So, how can the CareerBuilder figure be right? As bad as the economy is, it is still running. We have unemployment around 7%… that means 93% of the workforce is employed. Companies also moved aggressively to layoff workers at the end of 2008 to position themselves for ’09. Many facilities are now staffed to ride out the downturn.

Additionally, many hiring managers understand that the average recession lasts about a year, and we haven’t had a recession lasting more than two years since the great
depression. We’re already a year into this, so the hope is that by 2010, we’ll be on the path to recovery. There is no guarantee that this will happen, in the 1800’s, we had two recessions last more than five years without an upturn. Our situation is bad, but doesn’t compare to the situation at those times. One of the prolonged recessions occurred after the War of 1812, when Washington DC was burned by the British, and the other occurred in the early 1870’s with the county still trying to recover from the Civil War.
Fortunately, our country is in much better shape than at either of those times.

We don’t know when the economy will start growing again. We don’t know which companies are going to hire and which will layoff. We can’t be sure of much right now, and the negativity in the news can be overwhelming.

If you need a job, the only option is to forget the stats and headlines. Aggressively work to find your next job. Maintain your self-confidence. There will be job seekers that desperately need a job but lose momentum in their search expecting failure with each application.

No matter how bad the economy becomes, there will be millions of people that find jobs in 2009. To be one of them, you need to be positive, confident and proactive. Attitude and effort will make a huge difference in your search.

Social Media

Employers are using social media sites to assess job seekers. A social media site is a website with a community of users that interact. MySpace and Facebook are the two biggest, but there are a lot more out there. Of the managers that checked social media for a candidate, one-third found a significant reason to reject the candidate based on what they found.

Some of the common problems that were identified included drug and alcohol use, inappropriate conduct, a bad attitude towards past employers, poor communications skills and lies about the candidate’s qualifications. If you have online public profiles, you need to maintain a basic level of decency.

You should also google your name to check what information is on the web about you. It is so easy to do a search on a candidate’s name, it will become a common screening procedure at many companies. You should at least know what they are going to find.

More information can be found in the the 2009 CareerBuilder Hiring Forecast the CareerBuilder Report on Social Media.

 

Corporate Downsizing

This weekend, it was reported that challenges in the auto industry extend beyond domestic producers.  Porsche is going to shut down production for eight days, Volkswagen is considering a three week shut down and Audi is preparing to announce a temporary shutdown.

As the world economy slows, companies are struggling with how adjust their cost structure to meet following demand.  Many firms are working to lower labor costs.  Past recessions can help predict how companies will act.

In the more recent recessions, we have watched different tactics for reducing labor expense. Some companies have laid off workers across the board. Others have reduced wages or benefits. There have been some that have reduced hours per week.

There is an interesting article from the Wharton faculty talking about how companies react to recessions and strive to reduce costs.  In particular, the article talks about how companies may utilize pay, benefits and hours reductions over mass layoffs. 

In the past, the priority was retaining key talent. Recessions were expected to be short and maintaining the core of a talented workforce was the priority. This led to across mass layoffs with the goal of eliminating the least experienced or productive workers.

This tactic was chosen over reductions in pay, benefits or hours. The companies hoped to keep their top employees happy even if the layoffs hurt morale substantially in the short run. Although poor morale hurt, the fear was that a cut to compensation would motivate top employees to leave for a competitor.

In more severe recessions, few if any companies are hiring. The risk of a top employee leaving for a competitor is extremely low with few options for the employee. In this situation, more company should resort to pay, benefit and hours cuts. Although this does cause significant hardship for the employees, it usually does not hurt morale as much.

If our economy declines substantially, it will be important to understand what you can expect from your employer. Layoffs may be a possibility, but so could reductions in compensation. If your employer reduces pay or hours, it may show a commitment and belief by the management that they can maintain their workforce at the reduced labor expense level.

To read the full article from Wharton, go to As Layoffs Spread, Innovative Alternatives May Soften the Blow

 

Job Trends

Indeed.com has an excellent tool to examining trends in the job market. Indeed is a search engine for jobs. It visits thousands of sites, job boards, company sites and bulletin board sites, and captures information about posted jobs. It then allows a job seeker to search all the results.

If you haven't started using Indeed, you should add it to the selection of sites you search. It is very comprehensive and can be almost overwhelming.

One of the features Indeed offers is a trends search. You can search a keyword to see the trend for job postings mentioning that term.

Education Requirements

Although the economy is slowing and jobs are becoming more scarce, this isn't happening evenly across all jobs. I took a look at the trends for different educational levels, and the results are interesting. Jobs mentioning a high school requirement have increased significantly over the last fours and show a slight drop in the last few months. Jobs mentioning a Bachelor's degree show a similar trend. MBA's are in a significant downtrend and do not show any job growth over the last four years.  PhD's are holding strong and have been increasing over the last two years.

High School

 

Bachelor's Degree

 

MBA

 

PhD

 

Competition for Jobs

The Ladders issued their 3rd Quarter Job Market Trends report this week.  The report has some very interesting data.  In particular, they provide a measure of the number of job seekers for each position.

The Ladders focuses on positions with salaries over $100k, so this isn’t a measure of the full job market, but the situation is probably very similar at other income levels.

Here’s what the Ladders reported:

REGIONAL JOB MARKET COMPETITION
Compares the number of active job seekers to number of $100k+ positions available in this location.

San Francisco
San Diego
Washington DC
Boston
Seattle
Houston
New York
Austin
Philadelphia
Baltimore
Chicago
Denver
Los Angeles
Phoenix
Miami
Minneapolis
Atlanta
Dallas
Tampa
Detroit		 2:1
3:1
3:1
4:1
4:1
4:1
4:1
5:1
5:1
5:1
6:1
6:1
6:1
7:1
7:1
7:1
8:1
8:1
8:1
20:1

In some parts of the country, the news isn’t bad.  2:1 and 3:1 are fair odds.  For a position, you need to be in the top half or top third of candidates and you should have a good shot.

Other areas, Atlanta, Dallas, Tampa and Detroit are a different story.  With so many more job seekers than jobs, you can expect that every job posting is going to be inundated with resumes.  In Detroit, with 20 job seekers for every job, you need to be absolutely outstanding, exceptional in almost every way, to beat out your competition.

The primary question is this:  If you were sitting in a room with 19 other people that have the same education and experience as you, why should you be hired over them?

There will be a few people that will have a great answer to this question.  They are the ones that will make the final cut and one of them will get hired.  The rest will never get this to this point.

You can see the rest of the report from the Ladders at:   Update 9/17/11 – the link to the report is no working it the old link was  www.theladders.com/static/boom/08_q3_index.html

Job Searches Put on Hold

CareerBuilder recently released their fourth quarter Job Forecast report.  One of the measures they track is the how soon employees expect to change jobs.

In the report, it shows individuals are putting their job search on hold.  People that have a job are choosing to stay in that job as they ride out the financial downturn.  In fact, only 2% of workers expect to leave their current job in then month, 6% expect to leave in the next 3 months, and only 11% expect to leave in the next six months.

Contrast this with the same measure from three years ago.  In 2005, 13% of workers expected to leave their job in under 3 months.  There are two ways of looking at this. The first is that half of the people that ordinarily would be looking for a job are deciding to stay.  The other way is that people are still considering leaving but are delaying their goals by three months to see where the economy is in January before the commit to leaving.

The effect of both of these is the same.  The companies that are hiring are still having trouble finding people.  In fact, one third of hiring managers said that they currently have positions that they can't find qualified people to fill.

It may seem odd that some companies are experiencing a talent shortage at a time of rising unemployment.  This is an effect of the complexity of our economy.  There are good jobs available, but they often are not where the job seekers are.  The areas hit worst by the downturn in the housing market are also the areas where the construction industry is slowing the most.  This makes construction jobs tough to find in the areas with the most available workers.  The same is happening in Michigan with the Auto industry.  There are opportunities, but they're not around Detroit. 

The challenge for a job seeker is knowing when to relocate.  For many families, the idea of moving a thousand miles is a non-negotiable – they aren't going to do it.  This means that the industries hardest hit will have to grow to create new jobs for the people currently unemployed before many of these individuals will find work.  This can take a long time – years in some cases.

There isn't an answer for this.  The issues of relocating a family, selling a house in a depressed market (or walking away and allowing a foreclosure), and finding a company that you can believe in and trust will provide stable growth are not issues with a clear answers.  They are issues that need to looked at very closely. 

The full report from Career Builder is available at http://img.icbdr.com/images/aboutus/pressroom/Q42008ForecastReport.pdf